The resolution of the case came “down to the wire,” with less than a week to spare before a jury trial was slated to kick off, analysts at Evercore ISI wrote in a note to clients.
About four years after the case was filed—and against the backdrop of a significantly changed COVID-19 vaccine landscape—Moderna has resolved a long-running patent feud.Moderna will pay $950 million upfront—and no future royalties—to settle patent litigation over its mRNA-based vaccine Spikevax. The case was brought by Roivant subsidiary Genevant and infectious disease biotech Arbutus in 2022, alleging Moderna infringed their patents with the lipid nanoparticle (LNP) delivery technology in its blockbuster shot.The case eventually drew in Moderna’s respiratory syncytial virus (RSV) vaccine mRESVIA, too, which was approved by the FDA in 2024. The resolution of the case came “down to the wire,” with less than a week to spare before a jury trial was slated to kick off, analysts at Evercore ISI wrote to clients this week. Under the terms of the agreement, Moderna could be on the hook to pay Genevant and Arbutus another $1.3 billion, contingent upon Moderna’s potential liability over sales of its vaccine through government contracts, the companies said in a March 3 press release. Moderna is tackling that issue in appeals court and noted in its own release Tuesday that it isn’t anticipating a charge for the potential additional payment because it does not consider that outcome “probable.” With the upfront payment on the books, however, Moderna said it now expects to have cash and cash equivalents between $4.5 billion and $5 billion at the end of 2026. "Resolving this legacy matter from our pandemic response removes uncertainty and allows us to turn our full focus to Moderna's exciting near-term future," Moderna CEO Stéphane Bancel said in a statement. "In 2026, we will return to revenue growth and end the year with a strong balance sheet, with more than $5 billion in liquidity, as we drive toward breakeven in 2028.”Despite Moderna’s “sizable” upfront payout, analysts at Evercore said they had an “overall favorable view” of the settlement, noting that investor expectations for how the case might play out “were all over the map.” Given that some had expected Moderna’s tens of billions of dollars in COVID shot sales to incur a steeper award for Genevant and Arbutus, the deal “appears manageable and eliminates a meaningful tail risk,” the Evercore team said. Analysts at Jefferies were also optimistic about Moderna’s side of the deal, noting that the $950 million to $2.5 billion it could ultimately owe amounts to an effective 2% to 5% royalty rate on its $48 billion of cumulative worldwide vaccine sales. This in turn removes the “worst-case scenario of potentially a double-digit royalty rate,” the Jefferies team wrote in a March 3 note. Overall, Moderna is becoming a “cleaner” story in 2026, the Jefferies analysts added, noting that the lawsuit’s resolution provides greater certainty around Moderna’s next-generation COVID vaccine mNexspike, its experimental COVID and influenza combo shot mCombriax and the company’s flu pipeline more broadly. Moderna’s stock was up nearly 9% in Wednesday trading.Genevant and Arbutus levied their initial lawsuit against Moderna in February 2022, with the legal action following unsuccessful efforts by Moderna to invalidate two Arbutus patents.In the suit, filed in a Delaware federal court, Genevant and Arbutus said they were seeking damages on six patents which they claimed Moderna infringed. Crucially, the suing companies said they did not intend to stop Moderna from selling and supplying its immunization, but instead wanted compensation that amounted to a “reasonable royalty on all infringing sales.” In a gesture that enables continued sales of Moderna’s vaccines, Genevant and Arbutus noted Tuesday that they’ve also granted the company a global non-exclusive license to their LNP delivery technology in infectious disease applications through the settlement, alongside a pledge “not to sue for certain Genevant/Arbutus patents and Moderna products.” Moderna has pledged in turn not to challenge the validity of certain Genevant and Arbutus patents. The settlement resolves all global LNP litigation between the companies, Genevant and Arbutus said this week. “Nobel laureates, industry executives, and prominent researchers have long recognized that Arbutus scientists changed the drug development landscape when they invented LNP delivery technology, enabling nucleic acids, including mRNA, to be used for medicines and opening a new world of possibilities,” Lindsay Androski, Arbutus’ CEO, said in a statement. “Today, Moderna has finally acknowledged the same.”Meanwhile, Gevevant chief James Heyes noted that it is “enormously gratifying for the Gevevant team to, at long last, be recognized for our pivotal contribution to restoring normalcy around the world in the face of a once-in-a-lifetime pandemic.” Lawsuits still at play Genevant and Arbutus’ legal spat with Moderna is just one piece of a broader patent litigation landscape that sprang up in the wake of authorizations for Moderna and Pfizer’s respective mRNA vaccines, Spikevax and Comirnaty, during the COVID-19 pandemic. Roughly a year after filing suit against Moderna, the companies set their sights on Pfizer and its German mRNA partner BioNTech, arguing infringement over similar LNP delivery technology claims. “As we continue to pursue our ongoing litigation against Pfizer/BioNTech, whose Comirnaty sales represent ~2/3 of global COVID vaccine sales, this resolution with Moderna reduces uncertainty, validates our IP estate and provides near-term significant cash inflow,” Roivant CEO Matt Gline said Tuesday. Meanwhile, Moderna and Pfizer are also duking it out with each other over intellectual property claims in cases spanning multiple countries. And at the start of the year, Bayer filed separate complaints against Moderna and Pfizer and BioNTech in Delaware—as well as Johnson & Johnson in New Jersey—over claims that the companies’ COVID shots tread on a technology to improve mRNA stability that is patented by Monsanto, the crop science company Bayer bought out a decade ago. GSK has been on a COVID vaccine litigation streak too, and last summer it secured a $320 million payment after its mRNA licenser CureVac resolved its own COVID-19 lawsuit against Pfizer and BioNTech in the U.S.