Did Summit Therapeutics set expectations too high?
Excitement has been building over its cancer drug ivonescimab over the last two years as the company, investors and clinicians all wondered if it could pose a major challenge to Merck’s best-selling immunotherapy Keytruda.
But after
yet another mixed readout Sunday from its closely-watched Phase 3 trial
, Summit was busy defending itself on Monday, as Wall Street analysts peppered executives with unusually pointed and direct questions. Many of those questions dealt with Summit’s plans, which seemed yet to be determined.
The stock
$SMMT
lost almost a quarter of its nearly $20 billion market value.
Sunday’s data included a new post-hoc analysis showing that, after several months of additional data from Western patients, the trial finally hit statistical significance on overall survival after failing that test earlier this year.
But detailed breakdowns of subgroups in the trial — from China and Western patients — showed that the drug might be less effective in Western patients than those in China.
Those variations between geographic groups were a major focus on Monday’s call with Summit executives, who acknowledged the lack of a clean outcome but said there was still interest from physicians.
“None of us is claiming that this is statistically significant. It will not be. That is the way it went,” said Jack West, Summit’s VP of clinical development, arguing that there were enough good data to be meaningful for oncologists. “As I said, we are always, as clinicians, looking for truth within the reality that the trials don’t always provide clear answers.”
Part of the company’s challenge is the way the trial was built. When Summit first licensed the drug, it was only being studied in Chinese patients. Summit then got permission from the FDA to enroll North American and European patients, forcing the company to read out the final OS analysis before Western patient data were mature.
That “sequential nature” of the trial caused a large divergence in follow-up times between patients in and outside China, West said.
On Monday, Summit co-CEO Bob Duggan largely let others take the lead on the questions. He only chimed in at the very end, noting that the FDA’s allowance of sequential enrollment was unexpected in the first place. But he also said North American physicians were more cautious in treating patients than anticipated, contributing to the different follow-up periods.
“That’s why the estimated time for completion of the trial then came in a bit shorter than, had we been able to evaluate that properly, it would have,” Duggan said. “That’s the only reason why we have extended it, and allowed the maturity of the data to be equalized.”
Ivonescimab is a PD-1xVEGF bispecific drug, which combines immunotherapy’s PD-1 approach with another successful cancer-fighting mechanism in a single drug. After Summit licensed ivonescimab in 2022 from China’s Akeso, the company stayed largely silent about it as it began to design trials outside China.
That all changed in May 2024, when the company put out an announcement during the annual ASCO conference saying ivonescimab topped Keytruda in a head-to-head Phase 3 study of NSCLC patients in China. The prospect of a drug that could beat Keytruda suddenly had the industry buzzing about whether there was a competitor, and potential successor, to one of the biggest-selling drugs of all time.
But over the following months, additional results have begun to temper the hype. This year, Summit followed up 2024’s ASCO news by saying it had a positive trend in overall survival data, but had
missed statistical significance
in the global trial.
In the ramp-up to Sunday’s reveal, many were hopeful that the full Phase 3 data would give better, clearer answers. Instead, they may have just added to the confusion.
“Are there any additional analyses you plan to provide to us? Especially overall survival data from the Western populations that are later data cuts down the road? Or will it depend on your regulatory interactions?” Jefferies analyst Clara Dong asked on Monday’s call.
Leerink analyst Daina Graybosch, who has been perhaps the most bearish sell-side commenter on Summit, wrote in a note to investors Sunday evening that she thought FDA approval of ivonescimab was unlikely based on the new results.
“Based on FDA comments in recent oncology drug advisory committee (ODAC) meetings, and given potential for OS harm in NA & EU patients, we think US approval would have been challenging with this study even if it had met statistical significance on the OS HR endpoint,” Graybosch wrote.
Summit’s data also got the engines going on dealmaking for other drugs in the same class. BioNTech made the biggest move, acquiring its Chinese partner Biotheus and licensing its bispecific to Bristol Myers Squibb. Pfizer is also tied up with a program from 3SBio, and Merck licensed its own PD-1xVEGF from LaNova Medicines. And in July,
Bloomberg News
reported
that Summit and AstraZeneca are talking about a potentially huge deal for ivonescimab.
On Monday, BioNTech and Bristol Myers
released their own data
from a Phase 2 study for pumitamig (formerly BNT327) plus chemotherapy. In 38 patients with extensive-stage small cell lung cancer who hadn’t received any prior treatment, and whose cancers spread beyond one side of the chest, pumitamig and chemo had a median progression-free survival of 6.8 months.
Wall Street is continuing to digest the data, and questions will likely linger as Summit moves to meet with the FDA for next steps.