Retatrutide

iStock, Yutthana Gaetgeaw Eli Lilly’s tirzepatide is expected to be worth $62 billion annually by 2030, according to Evaluate. That valuation would be three times larger than what AbbVie’s blockbuster Humira ever achieved. Total prescription drug sales are expected to grow to $1.75 trillion by 2030, at which point GLP-1 therapies will make up 9% of total prescriptions, according to a new report from Evaluate. The weight loss and diabetes mega-blockbusters are expected to grow 20% between 2024 and 2030. “They are in a class of their own,” Evaluate said in the World Preview report , published Tuesday. Eli Lilly’s tirzepatide, marketed as Mounjaro for diabetes and Zepbound for weight loss, is expected to rake in $62 billion a year by 2030, according to Evaluate. That valuation would be three times larger than what AbbVie’s blockbuster Humira—long considered the best-selling drug in the world —achieved. It’s double the 2024 sales of Merck’s Keytruda. The broader category of GLP-1 drugs are “projected to reach hitherto unseen sales peaks,” according to Evaluate. This class of drugs is expected to have five of the top 10 slots on the best-sellers list by 2030 and will be four of the most promising candidates in the pipeline. But Lilly appears to be clearly leading the way. “Lilly’s supremacy in this battle is already apparent,” Evaluate wrote. Mounjaro and Zepbound are expected to be the best- and third-best selling drugs by the end of the decade. Lilly’s main competitor is Novo Nordisk, whose semaglutide is marketed as Wegovy for diabetes and Ozempic for weight loss. Those drugs sit at sixth and fifth, respectively. “First-mover Novo Nordisk lost ground due to its sluggish response to manufacturing shortages of Wegovy (semaglutide), which led to a flood of compounded (pharmacy-mixed) drug,” according to the report. Novo has acknowledged some stumbles, even ousting CEO Lars Fruergaard Jørgensen in May in a surprise move. Evaluate did say that Novo’s pipeline asset CagriSema, which combines semaglutide with an amylin agonist, is the most promising asset in R&D at the moment, with peak sales projections of $80 billion. But the drug has stumbled in the clinic, falling short of expectations and forcing Novo to launch a longer-duration trial to test different dosing. “If it doesn’t improve, CagriSema will only match Zepbound in efficacy, yet is more complex to manufacture,” Evaluate said. The Rest of the Best Immuno-inflammatory drugs will also continue to lead, with AbbVie’s Skyrizi and Sanofi/Regeneron’s Dupixent in the forefront and on track to make over $25 billion each in 2030. Oncology, too, will have a story to tell in 2030, with Johnson & Johnson’s Genmab-partnered blood cancer drug Darzalex meeting Merck’s falling star Keytruda as its patent expires in 2028 . The current best-selling immuno-oncology drug will fall to seventh place by 2030. “Keytruda’s 2028 expiry puts Merck at the top of the most exposed companies to patent-related sales losses over the rest of the decade—and is the only top ten drug with negative growth,” Evaluate wrote. But Merck is hoping to patch some of the holes in its Keytruda losses with a subcutaneous formulation that Evaluate named as one of the most valuable pipeline drugs by net present value. “It’s a shining case study in life-cycle management,” the analysis firm said, and one that the forthcoming GLP-1 combos and formulations may be able to copy as pipeline assets like oral GLP-1 orforglipron and triple-G agonist retatrutide are expected to take the market by storm . Pfizer has taken one of the biggest tumbles on Evaluate’s rankings, falling from the number one slot in the pandemic years to last place in the list of top 10 companies with the most drug sales expected in 2030. Novartis is also expected to be stuck in the bottom half as it lacks a standout blockbuster. Sanofi, on the other hand, is the “most impressive” non-GLP-1 company rising up the list, according to Evaluate. The French pharma is rising thanks to Dupixent, which is expected to grow by 10%.

Behind the success of its diabetes and obesity treatments, Eli Lilly is set up to become the top-selling company in the biopharma industry by 2030, according to Evaluate Pharma, with projected revenue exceeding $100 billion. Fueled by a sustained boom in sales of its diabetes and obesity products, Eli Lilly will become the world’s top-seller of prescription drugs by 2030 and will hold the top rung by a wide margin. according to data analytics specialist Evaluate Pharma in its 2030 projection.In its “World Preview 2025" report, Evaluate projects that Lilly’s prescription drug sales will reach $113 billion, well ahead of second-place Novo Nordisk, which has drawn an $84 billion estimate for 2030.The common thread between Lilly and Novo, of course, is their dominance of the diabetes/obesity market, which Evaluate figures will grow at a 20% annual clip between 2024 and 2030. Evaluate sees Lilly taking more advantage of the growth, increasing its prescription drug sales from $41 billion last year, while the analysts expect Novo will double its sales over the period from $42 billion in 2024.“By [2030], GLP-1 agonists and related combinations will comprise close to 9% of all prescription drug sales,” Evaluate wrote. “GLP-1-based drugs are now a category apart, projected to reach hitherto unseen sales peaks.” In 2030, Evaluate projects Lilly’s diabetes treatment Mounjaro will be the world’s top-selling drug, generating $46 billion, while the company’s obesity medicine Zepbound will be the third-best seller at $25.5 billion.Meanwhile, three Novo GLP-1 drugs are projected by Evaluate to be among the world’s top 10—Ozempic ($24.4 billion), Wegovy ($18.1 billion) and next-generation obesity drug Cagrisema ($15.2 billion), which has yet to be approved.In addition to Cagrisema, Evaluate places three other clinical-stage obesity treatments on its list of 10 top-selling drugs in 2030. Two of the candidates are in Lilly’s pipeline—oral GLP-1 treatment orforglipron, which is pegged for 2030 sales of $12.7 billion, and triple-action retatrutide, which has drawn a projection of $5.6 billion. The other projected top-selling obesity candidate is Amgen’s MariTide, with $3.7 billion in estimated 2030 sales.Company breakdownAccording to Evaluate, Lilly and Novo’s juggernaut trajectory will allow them to quickly surpass the industry’s 2024 leaders in prescription drug sales: 1) Johnson & Johnson ($55.7 billion); 2) AbbVie ($54.5 billion); 3) Merck ($54.3 billion); 4) Roche ($52.5 billion); 5) Pfizer ($52 billion); 6) AstraZeneca ($50.9 billion); 7) Novartis ($50.2 billion).Of those drugmakers, Evaluate sees AbbVie increasing its prescription drug sales the most by 2030, to $75.3 billion, behind its immune-inflammatory duo of Skyrizi, which the analysts see generating $26.6 billion in sales in 2030, and Rinvoq, which is tabbed for $14.8 billion in sales. Evaluate also sees J&J increasing its prescription sales over the next five years, to $67.8 billion, behind oncology standout Darzalex, which the analysts see generating $16.6 billion in sales in 2030.Other companies with significant sales increases over the next five years include Sanofi, which Evaluate envisions will leap from $44.2 billion in 2024 to $64.8 billion, due in major part to Regeneron-partnered Dupixent, which the analysts project to hit $25 billion in sales in 2030.Evaluate also projects a major bump in sales for AstraZeneca from $50.9 billion to $64.4 billion in 2030, thanks in part to Daiichi Sankyo-partnered ADC cancer drug Enhertu, which has been pegged to generate $15.2 billion in sales in 2030. Roche doesn’t have a drug on the top 10 list of projected sales, but Evaluate figures the Swiss company is in line for a solid bump in prescription drug sales from $52.5 billion to $66.3 billion.Evaluate sees Merck’s prescription drug sales increasing from $54.3 billion last year to $60 billion in 2030, which might be a surprise considering an estimated slide in sales of oncology superstar Keytruda from $29.5 billion last year to $17 billion in 2030 after it becomes subject to biosimilar competition in 2028.Credit the company’s formulation of a subcutaneous version of Keytruda, which is up for approval in September and Evaluate has tabbed for $7.6 billion in sales in 2030. The analysts called Mark’s development of subcutaneous Keytruda “a shining case study in life-cycle management.”On the flip side, Evaluate is projecting small sales decreases from Novartis and Pfizer, comparing revenues from 2024 to those expected in 2030.