Retatrutide

Behind the success of its diabetes and obesity treatments, Eli Lilly is set up to become the top-selling company in the biopharma industry by 2030, according to Evaluate Pharma, with projected revenue exceeding $100 billion. Fueled by a sustained boom in sales of its diabetes and obesity products, Eli Lilly will become the world’s top-seller of prescription drugs by 2030 and will hold the top rung by a wide margin. according to data analytics specialist Evaluate Pharma in its 2030 projection.In its “World Preview 2025" report, Evaluate projects that Lilly’s prescription drug sales will reach $113 billion, well ahead of second-place Novo Nordisk, which has drawn an $84 billion estimate for 2030.The common thread between Lilly and Novo, of course, is their dominance of the diabetes/obesity market, which Evaluate figures will grow at a 20% annual clip between 2024 and 2030. Evaluate sees Lilly taking more advantage of the growth, increasing its prescription drug sales from $41 billion last year, while the analysts expect Novo will double its sales over the period from $42 billion in 2024.“By [2030], GLP-1 agonists and related combinations will comprise close to 9% of all prescription drug sales,” Evaluate wrote. “GLP-1-based drugs are now a category apart, projected to reach hitherto unseen sales peaks.” In 2030, Evaluate projects Lilly’s diabetes treatment Mounjaro will be the world’s top-selling drug, generating $46 billion, while the company’s obesity medicine Zepbound will be the third-best seller at $25.5 billion.Meanwhile, three Novo GLP-1 drugs are projected by Evaluate to be among the world’s top 10—Ozempic ($24.4 billion), Wegovy ($18.1 billion) and next-generation obesity drug Cagrisema ($15.2 billion), which has yet to be approved.In addition to Cagrisema, Evaluate places three other clinical-stage obesity treatments on its list of 10 top-selling drugs in 2030. Two of the candidates are in Lilly’s pipeline—oral GLP-1 treatment orforglipron, which is pegged for 2030 sales of $12.7 billion, and triple-action retatrutide, which has drawn a projection of $5.6 billion. The other projected top-selling obesity candidate is Amgen’s MariTide, with $3.7 billion in estimated 2030 sales.Company breakdownAccording to Evaluate, Lilly and Novo’s juggernaut trajectory will allow them to quickly surpass the industry’s 2024 leaders in prescription drug sales: 1) Johnson & Johnson ($55.7 billion); 2) AbbVie ($54.5 billion); 3) Merck ($54.3 billion); 4) Roche ($52.5 billion); 5) Pfizer ($52 billion); 6) AstraZeneca ($50.9 billion); 7) Novartis ($50.2 billion).Of those drugmakers, Evaluate sees AbbVie increasing its prescription drug sales the most by 2030, to $75.3 billion, behind its immune-inflammatory duo of Skyrizi, which the analysts see generating $26.6 billion in sales in 2030, and Rinvoq, which is tabbed for $14.8 billion in sales. Evaluate also sees J&J increasing its prescription sales over the next five years, to $67.8 billion, behind oncology standout Darzalex, which the analysts see generating $16.6 billion in sales in 2030.Other companies with significant sales increases over the next five years include Sanofi, which Evaluate envisions will leap from $44.2 billion in 2024 to $64.8 billion, due in major part to Regeneron-partnered Dupixent, which the analysts project to hit $25 billion in sales in 2030.Evaluate also projects a major bump in sales for AstraZeneca from $50.9 billion to $64.4 billion in 2030, thanks in part to Daiichi Sankyo-partnered ADC cancer drug Enhertu, which has been pegged to generate $15.2 billion in sales in 2030. Roche doesn’t have a drug on the top 10 list of projected sales, but Evaluate figures the Swiss company is in line for a solid bump in prescription drug sales from $52.5 billion to $66.3 billion.Evaluate sees Merck’s prescription drug sales increasing from $54.3 billion last year to $60 billion in 2030, which might be a surprise considering an estimated slide in sales of oncology superstar Keytruda from $29.5 billion last year to $17 billion in 2030 after it becomes subject to biosimilar competition in 2028.Credit the company’s formulation of a subcutaneous version of Keytruda, which is up for approval in September and Evaluate has tabbed for $7.6 billion in sales in 2030. The analysts called Mark’s development of subcutaneous Keytruda “a shining case study in life-cycle management.”On the flip side, Evaluate is projecting small sales decreases from Novartis and Pfizer, comparing revenues from 2024 to those expected in 2030.

iStock, JHVEPhoto Eli Lilly joins up with Camurus to make long-acting versions of the pharma’s obesity and diabetes drugs, joining the industry’s growing pipeline of programs that are differentiated by the frequency of dosing. Eli Lilly has struck a deal that could reach $870 million in total value, striking a collaboration and licensing pact with Camurus to create long-acting versions of molecules against GLP-1 and other incretins. Mounjaro and Zepbound, Lilly’s weekly injectable drugs that target the incretins GIP and GLP-1, have put Lilly at the head of the white-hot obesity and diabetes space. The products generated sales of more than $6 billion in the first quarter. Lilly is racing to cement its leadership by developing new injectables and expanding into orals—the pharma’s next generation oral GLP-1 agonist orforglipron recently showed “injectable-like” effects in a Phase III trial—but faces a potential threat from investigational therapies that are dosed less frequently. The deal with Camurus could help Lilly to counter the threat. Lilly has agreed to pay up to $290 million in upfront, development and regulatory milestones to use Camurus’ long-acting delivery technology. The remaining $580 million is tied to sales-based milestones. Lilly can use the technology on up to four of its compounds. Camurus said Lilly can select from dual GIP and GLP-1 receptor agonists and triple GIP, glucagon and GLP-1 receptor agonists. Mounjaro and Zepbound are dual agonists. Lilly’s Phase III candidate retatrutide is a triple agonist. The deal also features an option to include amylin receptor agonists. Products developed using Camurus’ technology consist of an active ingredient dissolved in a lipid-based liquid. After being injected using a conventional syringe, the lipid solution forms a crystalline gel inside the body. The gel encapsulates the active ingredient. Over time, the gel degrades and releases the active ingredient into the bloodstream to provide sustained exposure for days, weeks or months. Camurus’ internal pipeline features once-monthly candidates, including an acromegaly therapy that the European Medicines Agency recommended for approval in April. The duration of treatments based on the technology depends on the formulation. The long-acting versions of Lilly’s drugs will join the industry’s growing pipeline of programs that are differentiated by the frequency of dosing. Camurus is running a Phase I trial of a once-monthly version of semaglutide, the active ingredient in Novo Nordisk’s Ozempic and Wegovy. Amgen started Phase III trials of MariTide, a once-monthly dual GLP-1 receptor agonist and GIP receptor antagonist, in March. Novo, currently Lilly’s chief rival in the space, struck a deal with the Danish firm Ascendis for a once-monthly GLP-1 drug in November. The Danish drugmaker agreed to pay Ascendis up to $285 million in upfront, development and regulatory milestone payments for the candidate. Studies have shown Lilly’s dual GIP and GLP-1 receptor agonist has advantages, including greater weight loss, over Novo’s single-acting GLP-1 drug. Novo’s high-dose Wegovy formulation narrowed the efficacy gap but Phase III data on the next-generation molecule CagriSema fell short of expectations. Investors reacted more positively to Phase Ib/IIa results for Novo’s amycretin, a GLP-1 and amylin receptor dual agonist. Regeneron also joined the list of companies mounting a challenge to Lilly this week. The biotech paid $80 million upfront for ex-China rights to a GLP-1/GIP receptor agonist that it believes could have a similar pro Lilly’s Mounjaro and Zepbound.