OBJECTIVES:To evaluate trends and disparities in the rates of mortality from chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD) among adults aged 65 years or more in the United States from 1999 to 2020, and to make near-term projections.
STUDY DESIGN:Population-based ecological time-trend analysis using mortality data from the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention Wide-ranging Online Data for Epidemiologic Research database.
MAIN OUTCOME MEASURES:Age-adjusted mortality rates (AAMR) per 105 adults, stratified by sex, age, race and ethnicity, census region, urbanization, and state. Joinpoint regression estimated annual percent changes, autoregressive integrated moving average (ARIMA) models projected rates to 2030, and Socio-Demographic Index (SDI) correlations and stochastic frontier analysis assessed state-level disparities and performance gaps.
RESULTS:Among 2,564,672 COPD deaths, overall AAMR declined from 303.5 to 238.6 per 105 over the period 1999-2017 (APC -0.45%), with a further decline observed over 2017-2020 (APC -4.40%). Male AAMR declined significantly in both periods (APC -1.36% and - 3.97%), whereas female AAMR remained relatively stable during 1999-2017 (APC 0.18%) before declining significantly during 2017-2020 (APC -4.90%), suggesting an acceleration in mortality reduction in recent years. Despite the overall decline, mortality remained unevenly distributed, with the highest AAMRs observed in the Midwest (301.1) and South (297.3), nonmetro areas (339.4), and low-SDI states, particularly West Virginia (401.3). ARIMA projections suggested that the overall AAMR would continue to fall to 223.3 by 2030, mainly because of an 18.6% projected decline among males; in contrast, female rates were projected to plateau at approximately 246.4. Frontier analysis further indicated that several high-burden states had excess mortality relative to benchmark states with comparable SDI levels, highlighting opportunities for targeted improvement.
CONCLUSIONS:Mortality risk declined, but the burden remained concentrated among the oldest adults (≥85 years), women, rural residents, and socially disadvantaged states. Sex-, geriatric-, and place-based strategies are needed to reduce persistent inequities.